Black-box Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods estimate response-level confidence by treating the LLM as a black box. Instead of inspecting internal model states, these scorers evaluate the consistency of multiple responses generated from the same prompt.
To use this approach, you must generate $m$ responses (where $m > 1$) for a given prompt $x_i$ using a non-zero temperature. The scorer then compares these responses $\tilde{\mathbf{y}}i = { \tilde{y}{i1},...,\tilde{y}_{im} }$ against the original response $y_i$ or against each other to determine uncertainty.
When to use Black-Box Scorers:
- When you are using an LLM that does not expose token probabilities or internal states (e.g., closed-source APIs like OpenAI or Anthropic).
- When you need a method that is universally compatible with any model.
Trade-offs to consider:
- Higher Cost: You must perform multiple generations per prompt.
- Higher Latency: Generating and comparing multiple responses is slower than single-pass scoring.